导读:亚太经合组织会议召开前夕，西方关于全球治理的讨论十分高涨，认为中国将取代美国领导世界的言论也甚嚣尘上，但是中国真的准备好了吗？
Discussions were running high on global governance among Western public opinion on the eve of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders meeting in Lima, Peru. Some Western media outlets hold the US is giving up its global leadership following Donald Trump’s election as US president on promises to abolish the Trans-Pacific Partnership and withdraw from the Paris climate deal. They believe a rising superpower, China, will replace the US to lead the world.
在秘鲁利马召开的亚太经合组织领导人会议前夕，关于全球治理的讨论在西方舆论中十分高涨。一些西方媒体认为，随着川普当选成为美国总统、并且承诺要取消TPP（Trans-Pacific Partnership跨太平洋伙伴关系）和废除巴黎气候协议，美国正在放弃它的全球领导地位。他们相信一个崛起的大国，中国，将取代美国领导世界。
Trump’s campaign remarks do reveal his intention to retract US global strategy. He seemingly wants to focus more energy and resources on reviving the US economy and social development. But as the US has been central to globalization, Trump is unlikely to take on the traditional isolationist road.
川普的竞选言论的确透露出他想要收缩美国全球战略的意图。他似乎想要把更多的精力和资源集中在振兴美国经济和社会发展上来。但是由于美国是全球化中心这一既定事实的存在，川普不太可能采取传统的孤立主义道路。
The West likes to use "leadership" to define the function of a major power. Admittedly, different countries have different powers and obligations due to varied national strength. The world after the Cold War was dominated by US leadership. Washington designed and maintained a string of systems, including the world trade system, the financial system, the Internet system, the security pattern and so on.
西方总是喜欢用“领导力”来定义一个大国的功能。诚然，不同的国家由于他们国家实力的不同而具有不同的权力和义务。冷战结束后的世界是由美国的领导力所主导的。美国设计并维护了一系列的体制系统，包括世界贸易体系、全球金融体制、全球互联网系统、全球安全模式等等。
The US has invested much into maintaining this leadership and also gained considerable benefits. In the foreseeable future, it’s impossible for the US to abandon its global leadership.
美国投入了大量资金来维持这一领导地位，并且从中获得了相当大的利益。在可预见的将来，美国不可能放弃其全球领导地位。
The US sought supremacy over everything in the past few years. However, it didn’t have enough national strength to bolster this unrealistic goal. Trump appears to be redesigning the US leadership, withdrawing the country from fields in which he thinks resources are being wasted. China thus will gain some room to exert its influence, but is China ready?
在过去的几年里，美国在一切方面都寻求至高无上的地位。然而，它并没有足够的国家实力来支持这一不切实际的目标。川普似乎将要重新设计美国的领导力，将美国从那些他认为资源正在被浪费的领域里退出去。中国因此将会获得一些空间来发挥其影响，但是中国准备好了吗？
China still cannot match the US in terms of comprehensive strength. It has no ability to lead the world in an overall way, plus, neither the world nor China is psychologically ready for it. It’s beyond imagination to think that China could replace the US to lead the world.
在综合实力方面中国还是不能和美国相匹敌。中国没有能力来全面领导世界，此外，无论是世界还是中国也都没有对此做好心理准备。几乎难以想象中国可以取代美国来领导整个世界。
But as China is rapidly developing, bringing about changes to the global power structure, its participation in global governance will be a natural and gradual process, which Beijing cannot rush or escape.
但是随着中国的迅速发展，将改变全球的权力结构，其在全球治理中的参与将是一个自然的、渐进的过程，在这一点上中国既不能冒进，也不能逃避。
If Washington withdraws from the Paris climate deal, China can stick to its commitment, yet it won’t be able to make up for the loss caused by the US. Or if the US takes on an anti-free trade path, the messy consequences will be beyond China’s ability to repair.
如果美国退出了巴黎气候协议，中国可以坚守其承诺，但是这并不能够弥补由美国所造成损失。或者如果美国走上了一条反自由贸易的道路，造成的混乱后果将超出中国的修复能力。
But on the other hand, the US, under the leadership of Trump, cannot rope in China’s neighboring countries to contain China or isolate China from the world trade system. Obama’s administration had worked to undermine China-initiated projects, such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the "One Belt and One Road" initiative, but to no avail.
但是另一方面，美国，在川普的领导之下，不能连横中国的邻国来牵制中国、或是将中国孤立在世界贸易体系之外。奥巴马政府一直致力于破坏由中国发起的项目，例如亚投行和“一带一路”等倡议，但是却无济于事。
So Sino-US cooperation is the only choice for future global governance. For a long time to come, the leadership of the US will be irreplaceable, meanwhile, China’s further rise is inevitable.
因此中美合作是未来全球治理的唯一选择。在今后很长一段时间里，美国的领导地位将不可替代，与此同时，中国的进一步崛起也是必然的。
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