专家称生产率提高有助于解释美国的经济增长

Worker shortages in the United States have led some companies to invest in machines to do some of the work they cannot find people to do.

美国的工人短缺导致一些公司投资机器来完成他们找不到人做的一些工作。

The companies have also been training workers to use new technology so they can produce more with less.

这些公司还一直在培训工人使用新技术，以便他们能够用更少的成本生产更多的产品。

The result has been an unexpected increase in productivity, a measure of economic performance.

其结果是生产率出人意料地提高，这是衡量经济表现的指标。

Productivity compares two sets of data: outputs and inputs.

生产率比较两组数据：产出和投入。

Outputs are the goods and services produced, while the inputs are what is needed to create those goods and services.

产出是生产的商品和服务，而投入是创造这些商品和服务所需要的。

The productivity increase represents a change from the years before the COVID-19 pandemic years.

生产力的提高反映了疫情爆发前数年的变化。

Yearly productivity growth averaged around 1.5 percent, business advisory company RSM estimates.

商业咨询公司RSM估计，年生产率平均增长约1.5%。

Things changed when the economy moved out of the 2020 recession.

当经济走出2020年的衰退时，情况发生了变化。

Businesses had difficulties bringing back the many workers they had lost.

企业很难将失去的许多工人带回来。

The resulting worker shortage sent pay higher.

随之而来的工人短缺导致工资上涨。

Inflation increased for a number of reasons.

通货膨胀上升的原因有很多。

One was that factories and ports had problems meeting rising product orders while shipping slowed.

其一是，工厂和港口在满足不断增加的产品订单方面遇到了问题，而运输却在放缓。

Shortages of parts were also reported.

据报道，零部件也出现了短缺。

Many companies turned to automation.

许多公司转向自动化。

Investment in equipment and in research and development and other forms of intellectual property grew.

对设备、研发和其他形式的知识产权的投资有所增长。

The Associated press reports that the efficiency effects began to arrive almost a year ago.

美联社报道称，效率效应大约在一年前就开始显现。

The U.S. government's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports on productivity.

美国政府劳工统计局(BLS)发布了生产率报告。

The BLS released its most recent productivity numbers on February 1.

劳工统计局于2月1日发布了最新的生产率数据。

The bureau said: "Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023."

该局表示：“2023年第四季度，非农业企业部门的劳动生产率提高了3.2%。”

Batesville Tool and Die is a company based in the Midwestern state of Indiana.

贝茨维尔模具公司是一家总部位于美国中西部印第安纳州的公司。

Trying to keep up with customer demand, Batesville Tool and Die began looking for 70 people to hire last year.

为了跟上客户的需求，贝茨维尔工具与模具公司去年开始招聘70人。

It was not easy.

这并不容易。

Getting factory workers to move to a small community of 7,300 people in the Indiana countryside was difficult.

让工厂工人搬到印第安纳州农村一个只有7300人的小社区很困难。

Job seekers were rare there.

在那里，求职者很少。

"You could count on one hand how many people in the town were unemployed," said Jody Fledderman, the company chief.

该公司首席执行官乔迪·弗莱德曼说，“你可以用一只手数出来镇上有多少人失业。”

Batesville Tool and Die filled just 40 of its job openings.

贝茨维尔工具与模具公司只填补了40个职位空缺。

But then the company invested in machines that could work like human workers and in vision systems, which helped its robots "see" what they were doing.

但随后，该公司投资了可以像人类工人一样工作的机器和视觉系统，这有助于其机器人“看到”他们在做什么。

Austan Goolsbee is president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

奥斯坦·古尔斯比是芝加哥联邦储备银行行长。

He has compared increasing productivity to "magic… for the economy…You can have faster income increases, faster wage growth, faster GDP without generating inflation.''

他将提高生产力比作“经济的魔力。你可以在不产生通货膨胀的情况下获得更快的收入增长、更快的工资增长和更快的GDP。”

Joe Brusuelas is chief economist at RSM.

乔·鲁埃拉斯是RSM的首席经济学家。

He said, "The last time we saw anything like this was the late 1990s."

他说：“我们上一次看到这样的情况是在20世纪90年代末。”

At that time, Brusuelas said, a productivity increase — an early result from the sudden use of laptops, cellphones, and the internet — helped keep borrowing rates low.

布鲁苏拉说，当时生产力的提高——笔记本电脑、手机和互联网的突然使用带来的早期结果——有助于保持低借贷利率。

Inflation remained under control even as the economy and the job market were strong.

尽管经济和就业市场表现强劲，但通胀仍在控制之下。

This time, the U.S. central bank has increased the interest rates it controls 11 times starting in March 2022.

这一次，美国从2022年3月开始，央行已将其控制的利率提高了11次。

That has played a part in easing inflation from a 40-year high of 9.1 percent to around 3.1 percent.

这在一定程度上缓解了通货膨胀，从40年来的最高点9.1%降至3.1%左右。

"I would have said it's not possible,'' said Sal Guatieri who is an economist at BMO Capital Markets.

蒙特利尔银行资本市场的经济学家萨尔·瓜蒂里说：“我会说这是不可能的。”

"But that's exactly what happened.''

“但这正是发生的事情。”

A year ago, many economists warned that a recession was very likely.

一年前，许多经济学家警告称，经济很有可能陷入衰退。

Jerome Powell leads the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank.

杰罗姆·鲍威尔是美国联邦储备银行主席。

Powell warned in 2022 that beating inflation would result in "some pain" in the form of widespread job losses and unemployment.

鲍威尔在2022年警告称，战胜通货膨胀将导致“一些痛苦”，表现为大范围的失业。

Last month, Powell said something different.

上个月，鲍威尔说了一些不同的话。

With unemployment near a 50-year low, Powell told reporters, "We've had a very strong labor market, and we've had inflation coming down."

随着失业率接近50年来的最低水平，鲍威尔告诉记者，“我们的劳动力市场非常强劲，通货膨胀率也在下降。”

He did warn that the central bank wants to see further progress in slowing inflation.

他确实警告说，央行希望在减缓通胀方面取得进一步进展。

But the Fed is so optimistic that inflation is heading toward its two percent goal that it has not raised rates since July.

但美联储非常乐观，认为通胀率正朝着2%的目标发展，自7月份以来就没有加息。

Some experts expect the central bank to cut its interest rates several times this year.

一些专家预计，央行今年将多次降息。

At a news conference this month, Powell was asked whether he believed higher productivity helps explain why the economy has kept growing even while inflation has fallen.

在本月的一次新闻发布会上，鲍威尔被问到，他是否认为更高的生产率有助于解释为什么即使在通胀下降的情况下，经济仍保持增长。

"That's one way to look at it — yeah," Powell replied.

鲍威尔回答说：“这是一种看待问题的方式——是的。”

I'm John Russell.

我是约翰·拉塞尔。

重点词汇

shortages短缺不足缺少shortage的复数

United States美国美利坚合众国依宪法而联合起来的州的总称

invest in投资到

some of中的一些其中一些其中的一些

new technology新科技

has been已经